In the north of Madagascar, overcoming the fear of the next cyclone

A few weeks ago, cyclone Chido passed very close to Madagascar, before wreaking havoc on neighbouring countries. This time, the island narrowly escaped disaster, but the threat is ever-present: in 40 years, it has been hit by more than 90 cyclones, with disastrous humanitarian consequences, repeatedly deteriorating what the inhabitants were trying to rebuild. The communities living in the north of the island are particularly exposed to these hazards, but have been able to rely on HI's support to anticipate and prepare for disasters in a way that leaves no one behind.

Almost a year on, the memory of the last disaster remains fresh in people’s minds

When Chido was threatening the island only a few weeks ago, the worry could be seen etched on the faces of the inhabitants of Ambilobe, a town in the Mahavavy valley in the north of Madagascar. In March 2024, this region was ravaged by cyclone Gamane. In Ambilobe, strong gusts of wind had quickly given way to unprecedented flooding: the rivers running through the town burst their banks and the waters swept away everything in their path, leaving the population exposed and vulnerable.

Yvette Patine, Ambilobe’s chief of district, is in charge of development support. She explains:

‘"That last episode was the worst the region has ever seen. The worry is always the flooding, a cyclone passes quickly, but once the water has risen, that’s it. Last time, the dykes gave way. Houses were wiped out, a bridge was destroyed, the roads were cut off... The toll was quite high: several people died, many were displaced and it took us several months to clear away all the debris. People are still anxious today." 

Food, housing, livelihoods... Some people lost everything in this unusually violent weather event. Mr Lemarisc lives in one of the fokontany most severely affected by the floods. He recounts:

“I'm nearly 75 years old and I've never seen so much damage; the violence of the floods took everyone by surprise. One of my neighbours lost everything. He still hasn't found a house, work, the means to live with dignity. Today it's still complicated, not everything has been rebuilt: the protective dykes have been destroyed; the buildings and roads are damaged... The rainy season is here and we're not ready.” 

As well as the damage and losses caused by cyclones, residents are afraid of the ensuing violence. Mr Lemarisc tells us that, back in March, a few hours after the floods and before the most vulnerable people had managed to make it back their homes, looters came to steal anything that had not been washed away, looking for food, money or anything they could sell. The violence is also physical, especially in the emergency shelters where women and children are particularly vulnerable. Olidia Razananoro, a representative of the Ministry of Population and Solidarity in Ambilobe and board member of a women's rights association, explains:

”When a shock like this happens, the priority is to protect the population. Unfortunately, accommodation solutions are limited and it's not always possible to separate the women and children from the men... Women's rights are not established here. They are victims of economic, physical and psychological violence, and in this kind of situation, everything is amplified tenfold. We often see systems of exploitation being set up, rendering women and children all the more vulnerable to sexual violence.”

Although these fears are justified, HI's teams have been present in the communities for many months, helping them to anticipate these risks. Today, this approach has enabled the population to be better prepared, to know what behaviour to adopt in the event of danger, and so to escape the perpetual fear of the next disaster.

Reducing the risk of disasters by preparing the population

This season, weather forecasts estimate that between two and five cyclones of varying intensity could pose a risk to Madagascar, particularly in the north of the island. Although initiatives exists, more needs to be done to include people with disabilities in disaster risk management. HI has been working for three years with all the stakeholders in the Ambilobe region to strengthen the resilience of at-risk communities and ensure that the realities of people with disabilities are taken into account.

Lucien Peter, 45, is commander of the Ambilobe fire brigade and municipal police. His responsibilities include overseeing what happens when a cyclone, floods or heavy rain warning is announced, and during and after these extreme weather events. He has been a regular partner of HI and stresses that preparedness is still an ongoing process: 

"Some things have been achieved, but a lot remains to be done. As far as the public are concerned, all the while there is no rain, they don’t think about the risks! As well as the practical preparation of equipment, emergency accommodation and warning systems, there's a lot of work to be done in terms of raising public awareness."

According to Mr Peter, working closely with HI and the Ambilobe Organisation of People with Disabilities has provided important information on the disabled population living in the commune.This identification process has enabled the authorities to determine who is living with a disability, so that they can determine their specific needs and adapt the preparation and assistance to be provided as necessary: 

“I am very grateful to HI for their invaluable help in matters of disaster risk management, and I admire the work that has been done. A lot of NGOs don't go out and meet the people. With HI, there was a real community approach. This will enable us to protect people better. In fact, we can already see some progress, a change in behaviour on the part of local people.” 

Putting theory into practice by simulating the arrival of a cyclone

At the end of October 2024, as part of its ATRIKA project for anticipatory action to cope with climate shocks such as cyclones and floods, HI organised a simulation exercise. For four days, firefighters, police officers, associations, journalists, representatives of ministries and of the National Disaster Risk Management Office, in other words all the stakeholders mobilised when a cyclone is announced, took part in the exercise. 

Objective? To test the action protocols developed by HI in the Ambilobe region and identify what has been achieved, what works and what remains to be done to achieve effective and inclusive disaster risk management. 

"As a result of climate change, the intensity of cyclones is increasing. Even if our resilience has improved in recent years, it remains weak, and the passage of Gamane has made what was already fragile even more so...," explains Yvette Patin, her concern audible.

Nevertheless, this 58-year-old civil servant concludes that even if the population is stubborn, in some ways the commune is lucky, because now people have experience and awareness of the risk... She remains confident. She believes that preparation is crucial. The population needs to be prepared to minimise the risk of a humanitarian disaster whenever a cyclone threatens the region.